Le Monde diplomatique
   -----------------------------------------------------

   August 2006

                      AFTER HIZBULLAH AND HAMAS .. 

Middle East: what will emerge from the ruins?
     ___________________________________________________________

      A month into war in the Middle East, the United States and
    France have come together to formulate a way out of the crisis
   in Lebanon, based on United Nations resolutions. They propose an
        end to the violence, followed by the deployment of an
   international force. Failure to gain Lebanese and Arab agreement
   has allowed Israel more time to pursue its military objectives.

                                                     by Alain Gresh
     ___________________________________________________________

     Killers daily slaughter dozens of civilians in Iraq just
     because they are Sunni Muslims, a crime not seen in the
     Middle East since the civil war in Lebanon in 1975-76, when
     Falangist militants executed Muslims because of their faith.
     According to the United Nations, almost 6,000 Iraqis were
     killed in May and June.

     In the south of Afghanistan, 100 civilians have been
     collateral victims of an offensive by coalition forces, led
     by the United States, to prevent the return of the Taliban.
     Suicide attacks are increasingly common in Afghanistan, where
     before they were unknown.

     On the Gaza Strip, 1.5 million Palestinians are caught in a
     trap, hemmed in by the Israeli offensive and the decision by
     the US and the European Union to freeze all direct aid. The
     sudden escalation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon,
     with indiscriminate bombing of towns, villages and
     infrastructure, may drag Syria and Iran into a regional
     conflict. Meanwhile, Hizbullah's rockets have paralysed the
     north of Israel. And the Iran nuclear crisis remains
     unresolved: Tehran is threatening to withdraw from the
     Non-Proliferation Treaty.

     It is just three years since President George Bush landed
     triumphantly on a US aircraft carrier and announced "mission
     accomplished", signifying an end to the hostilities in Iraq,
     where the full scale of the disaster unleashed by the allied
     invasion is now apparent. Not since 1967 has the Middle East
     suffered so many simultaneous high-intensity crises. Though
     each has its own rationale, they are all linked by many
     threads, making partial solutions more difficult and dragging
     the region ever faster into the abyss.

     For many western observers there is no doubt about the
     culprit; they believe Hizbullah aims to destroy Israel and to
     unsettle the whole western camp; Hizbullah and its backers
     are trying to "establish a universal Islamist
     dictatorship" (1). This analysis, currently predominant among
     politicians and the media, is close to that of the US
     neo-conservatives: a new world war has started.

     Michael Leeden, a researcher at the American Enterprise
     Institute, wrote: "It's war, and it now runs from Gaza into
     Israel, through Lebanon and thence to Iraq via Syria. There
     are different instruments, ranging from Hamas in Gaza to
     Hizbullah in Syria and Lebanon and on to the multifaceted
     insurgency in Iraq. But there is a common prime mover, and
     that is the Iranian mullahcracy, the revolutionary Islamic
     fascist state that declared war on us 27 years ago and has
     yet to be held accountable" (2).

                            A neo-con war

     One of the leading US neocon ideologists, William Kristol,
     proudly proclaims "It's our war" (3), since he believes that
     in the face of an across-the-board attempt to destabilise the
     western world, the Israeli government, led by Ehud Olmert, is
     undoubtedly "on the right side". Even as Lebanon was being
     bombed, the Group of Eight issued a statement from its
     meeting in St Petersburg, signed by France (4), proclaiming
     Israel's "right to defend itself ".

     True, the initial Hizbullah attack on 12 July on an Israeli
     patrol led to six deaths and the capture of two soldiers.
     This was hardly an isolated incident since skirmishes are
     commonplace along the Israel-Lebanon border, especially in
     the disputed area around the Sheba farms, which the Lebanese
     government considers to be Israeli-occupied territory.
     Israeli jets also violated Lebanese air space every day
     before the present war. On 26 May Israel had a leader of the
     Islamic Jihad assassinated. Lebanese militants, including
     Samir Qantar, Nassim Nisr and Yehia Skaf, are still held in
     Israeli prisons (Qantar since 1978, the others since 1982).

     Even if we accept that the Hizbullah incursion was illegal,
     how do we regard the systematic destruction of Lebanon?
     Attacks targeting towns, villages and civilian infrastructure
     have forced some 600,000 people out of their homes. Under
     international law such actions count as war crimes. The 1977
     Additional Protocol to the Geneva Convention clearly defines
     the principle of proportionality: "An attack which may be
     expected to cause incidental loss of civilian life, injury to
     civilians, damage to civilian objects, or a combination
     thereof, which would be excessive in relation to the concrete
     and direct military advantage anticipated" (5). Who could
     ever imagine that the stated objective, to rescue two
     soldiers, justifies the death and destruction caused by the
     Israeli bombardment? Is a Lebanese life is worth less than an
     Israeli life?

     The outcome of the Israeli offensive remains uncertain.
     Hizbullah is Lebanon's largest political party, with 12
     members of parliament. It is deeply rooted in the Shia
     community, the country's largest, and enjoys enormous
     prestige for having liberated the south of Lebanon in 2000.
     It is allied with major political forces, such as General
     Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, the Lebanese Communist
     party, the Syrian Social Nationalist party, and with
     influential figures including Sunnis Usama Saad and Omar
     Karami, and the Maronite Sleiman Frangié. To claim that
     Hizbullah is a pawn in the hands of Iran or Syria is absurd.

     Anthony Cordesman, an influential researcher at Washington's
     Centre for Strategic and International Studies and therefore
     unlikely to be suspected of harbouring Islamist sympathies,
     wrote: "Analysts and reporters need to be careful to stick to
     the facts in covering Iran's role in the current fighting. A
     number of sources, including Israeli officials and officers,
     have begun to use the Lebanon crisis to find new reasons to
     attack Iran, partly because of the nuclear issue and partly
     because it is now seen as Israel's most serious enemy. The
     end result is blowing up suspicions and limited facts into
     full-blown conspiracies. US intelligence has not seen
     evidence that Iran dominated or controlled Hizbullah, but for
     most of Hizbullah's existence, it has seen Iran as a major
     source of money and weapons" (6).

     Beirut's civilian airport was one of the first targets for
     Israeli bombing, a sad rerun of past events. By the end of
     1968 the Middle East had still not recovered from the war in
     June 1967, but Palestinian resistance was starting to take
     shape. On 26 December the radical Popular Front for the
     Liberation of Palestine attacked an El Al jet at Athens
     airport, killing a retired officer. One of the group was from
     Lebanon and a statement claiming responsibility was issued
     there. Two days later Israeli commandos destroyed 13
     airliners at Beirut airport.

                           The UN condemns

     The UN Security Council unanimously condemned the attack and
     demanded that Israel pay for the damage. It never complied.
     France stated the principle of reprisals was unacceptable and
     General de Gaulle embargoed arms sales to Israel, refusing to
     deliver 50 Mirage jets for which Israel had already paid (7).

     A communiqué issued by the French cabinet on 8 January 1969
     read: "Comparisons have been made between the attack on an
     Israeli aircraft at Athens and the operation against Beirut
     airport, but in fact the two operations were not comparable.
     The Athens attack involved men belonging to an underground
     organisation. The Beirut operation was mounted by a state,
     using its own military equipment, in particular French-built
     Super Frelon and Alouette aircraft, against civil facilities
     belonging to another state." The statement highlighted the
     "Israeli influence on the media" (8). Gaullists in those days
     were not afraid to speak their minds.

     The occupation of Gaza, the West Bank, East Jerusalem and
     parts of the Golan Heights has lasted almost 40 years.
     Despite so many UN Security Council resolutions and
     optimistic statements - the roadmap, approved by the Quartet
     (US, Russia, EU and UN) claimed that the Palestinian state
     would be set up before the end of 2005 - conditions in
     Palestine are steadily deteriorating.

     No progress was made in 2005. The authorities in Tel Aviv
     repeatedly explained to the world that Yasser Arafat was an
     obstacle to peace, but his death and replacement by Mahmoud
     Abbas (Abu Mazen) did not force Ariel Sharon to give up his
     unilateral policies.

     The Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, hailed by political
     leaders and the media as a courageous act, destroyed what
     remained of the Oslo accords: the principle that peace would
     be achieved through bilateral negotiation. For the
     Palestinian population of Gaza the evacuation did nothing to
     improve their predicament; it worsened their position.

     The pace of the Israeli settlement of the West Bank quickens
     and the "peace process" is no more than an empty phrase in
     statements by the international community. Under these
     circumstances it is hardly surprising that Hamas should have
     won the general election in January. Yet the West promptly
     punished the Palestinians for making the wrong choice. With
     French backing, the EU deprived the Palestinian Authority of
     its direct aid, worsening living conditions and further
     hampering already enfeebled administrative bodies.

     About the rockets fired from Gaza into the Israeli town of
     Sderot, Gideon Levy, an Israeli journalist who writes for
     Haaretz, asked: "What would have happened if the Palestinians
     had not fired Qassams? Would Israel have lifted the economic
     siege that it imposed on Gaza? Would it open the border to
     Palestinian labourers? Free prisoners? Meet with the elected
     leadership and conduct negotiations? Encourage investment in
     Gaza? Nonsense. If the Gazans were sitting quietly, as Israel
     expects them to do, their case would disappear from the
     agenda here and around the world. Nobody would have given any
     thought to the fate of the people of Gaza if they did not
     behave violently" (9).

                         Agreement unwelcome

     After considerable tension, all the Palestinian organisations
     except the Islamic Jihad signed a text on 27 June calling for
     a political solution based on the creation of a Palestinian
     state beside the state of Israel. It also restricted armed
     resistance to the occupied territories. This agreement opened
     the way for the formation of a government of national unity
     in a position to open peace negotiations. The next day the
     Israeli army invaded Gaza, on the pretext that a soldier had
     been taken hostage, but in fact to destroy Hamas (10).

     This Israeli incursion, with its bombing of power stations
     and ministry buildings, arrests of political leaders,
     destruction of homes, and the use of civilians as human
     shields (11), also qualifies as a war crime. The Swiss
     government, the custodian of the Geneva Conventions, issued a
     communiqué on 4 July in which it noted that there is "no
     doubt Israel has not taken the precautions required of it in
     international law to protect the civilian population and
     infrastructure".

     The wars against the Palestinians and Lebanon are both part
     of the same strategy, which seeks to impose a solution that
     only satisfies Israeli interests. Yet never in the past 40
     years has Israeli policy received such unanimous western
     support. We have heard only a few voices of dissent, notably
     from the Vatican.

     Again the Arab world has demonstrated its inability to
     intervene - so far. Arab states allied with the US feel
     unable to exert any pressure on Washington. What they have
     done, noteworthy in itself, is to condemn Hizbullah and
     Hamas, implicitly justifying Israeli incursions. The Saudi
     foreign minister Saud al-Faisal asked non-Arab parties to
     keep out of the conflict, obviously not referring to the US,
     but to Iran.

     Abd al-Wahab Badrakhan, the Al Hayat columnist, wrote: "All
     the Arabs, from the Atlantic to the Gulf, know that the peace
     process is well and truly dead and that the Arabs have been
     fooled once, twice and a thousand times. However, the Arabs
     have never acknowledged that the peace process was dead, out
     of obstinacy and because they do not know how to get out of
     the swamp they have sunk into. Therefore, whether we like it
     nor not, the final word has been left to those whom we call
     extremists or adventurers" (12).

     Hamas began in Gaza in 1987, after 20 years of Israeli
     occupation, surfing on the tidal wave of the first intifada.
     Hizbullah emerged from the fight against occupation forces
     after the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982. What new
     extremist organisation will rise from the fresh ruins of
     Lebanon?
       ________________________________________________________

     (1) Gérard Dupuy, "G8 hors-jeu", Libération, 17 July 2006.

     (2) Michael Leeden, "The same war", National Review Online,
     13 July 2006.

     (3) The Weekly Standard, Washington, 24 July 2006.

     (4) See "Middle East: France rejoins the pack", Le Monde
     diplomatique, English language edition, June 2006.

     (5) Collectif, Crimes de guerre. Ce que nous devons savoir,
     Autrement, Paris, 2002.

     (6) "Iran's support of the Hizbollah in Lebanon", 14 July
     2006, www.csis.org.

     (7) See Xavier Baron, Les Palestiniens: Genèse d'une nation,
     Seuil, Paris, 2003.

     (8) Quoted by Samy Cohen in De Gaulle, les gaullistes et
     Israël, Alain Moreau, Paris, 1974.

     (9) Gideon Levy, "Who started?", Haaretz, Tel Aviv, 9 July
     2006.

     (10) Hamas observed a ceasefire with Israel from February
     2005 to 10 June 2006. It only breached the agreement after an
     increase in the number of targeted killings and the deaths of
     a Palestinian family on the beach at Gaza on 10 June.

     (11) See the report by the Israeli organisation B'Tselem,
     www.btselem.org/English

     (12) Al Hayat, Beirut, 17 July 2006.



                                       Translated by Harry Forster


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