An-Najah National University
Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies
Tel: (972) (9) 2345113 Fax: (972)(9) 2345982
Nablus – Palestinian: P.O.Box 7, 707
Email: Polls@najah.edu hussein596@yahoo.com
Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Polls No 16,December 24-25, 2005
Background:
The immanent legislative council elections which are scheduled to be held on the 25th of January 06, occupy the attention of the Palestinian public. There is an ongoing debate concerning the number of persons, the running tickets and the possibility of out not conducting these elections on the appointed time due to internal and external reasons. These realties are added to the disagreement among Fateh on the form of the running ticket, the names and nominations of the running persons, the declarations that the US and the EU issued concerning the participation of Hamas in the Legislative Elections, and the possibility of reducing or concealing the financial help given to the Palestinian Authority of Hamas participates in the Palestinian Political system. Further, there is a serious concern among the Palestinian Public that Israel may not allow the Palestinian resident of East Jerusalem from participating in the Legislative Elections. Such procedure, if it took place, would mean postponing the elections or canceling altogether.
The Results:
Following are the results of the Sixteenth Palestinian Public Opinion Poll conducted by the Centre for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from December 24 to 25, 2005. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Centre.
This poll undertakes several subjects centered on the coming Palestinian legislative elections, in addition to political sympathies.
The sample included 1361 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The sample forms one per thousand from among the total number of Palestinian people of this age group. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 861 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 2.7% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.
* The Opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not represent by any means the opinion of An-Najah National University.
Major results:
· 62% from among respondents believe that the second legislative elections will be conducted on its specified date.
· 58.4% from among respondents assert that the legislative elections will be democratic and fair; 30.8% say the opposite.
· 56.9% from among respondents see that the internal security conditions permit conducting legislative elections; 36.3% see the contrary.
· 82.4% from among respondents say that they trust the central Elections Committee.
· 76.2% from among respondents say that they trust the local observers on elections.
· 72.3% from among respondents say that they trust the international observers on elections.
· 66.3% believe that the existence of international observers on elections is necessary.
· 82.8% say that they will participate in the elections.
· 18.7% from among respondent will not participate in the legislative elections because of religious reasons, 3% for political reasons, and 45.1% will not participate because in their view the elections will not change anything.
· When respondents who say that they will not participate in the elections are asked about the factors that may make them change their opinion and participate, 7.2% say that they may change their opinion if they see a convincing elections program that meets their personal ambitions, 0.9% say if they are given financial incentives, 3% say if any of their relatives or acquaintances run for the elections, 16.6% say if they see an elections program that would respond to their national ambitions, and 47.2% say they will not participate under all circumstances.
· The order of the running tickets according to the opinion of respondents came according to the following order:
|
Change and Reform led by Ismael Abu Hannieh |
31.4% |
|
Al-Mustaqbal (Future) led by Marwan Barghuthi |
26.8% |
|
Palestinian Liberation Organization (Fateh) led by Mohammed Abu Ali Mustafa. |
17.7% |
|
Independent Palestine and the Independents led by Mustafa Al Barghouti |
9.8% |
|
Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa led by Ahmad Sa’adat. |
5.9% |
|
The Third Road led by Salam Fayyad |
4.7% |
|
Al Badeel (The Alternative)led by Qais Abu Laila |
1.2% |
|
Martyr Abu Al Abbas led by Omar Shlabi |
0.6% |
|
Palestinian Justice led by Sameer Qadri |
0.6% |
|
Freedom and Social Justice led by Ahmad Majdalani |
0.5% |
|
Freedom and Independence led by Saleem Al Bardeeni |
0.5% |
|
The National Coalition for Justice and Democracy (Wa’id) led by Ghazi Jeyab |
0.3% |
· 30.9% from among respondents say that the basic principle which decides casting their votes in the coming legislative elections is the good reputation of the candidate, 23.3% say it is the patriotic history of the candidate and 11.3%say it is the candidate’s elections program.
· As for elections on the basis of percentage electoral lists, 28.9% from among respondents say that the basic principle which makes them decide to whom they will give their vote in the coming legislative elections is the elections program of the candidate; 44.1% say it is the political orientations of the list.
· 19.1% from among respondents say that their priority on the local scale is alleviating poverty and unemployment, 19.7% say it is controlling the local security situation, 19.7% say it is freeing prisoners, 21% say it is fighting corruptions in public institutions, 8.8% say it is providing personal security for citizens, 3.1% say improving educational and health services, and 6.2% say it is putting an end to mediations (wasta) in appointments in public positions.
· 34.9% from among respondents say that they support the reopening of candidacy registration for the coming legislative elections.
· As for political affiliation respondents give the following results:
|
People’s Party |
0.6% |
|
Democratic Front |
0.7% |
|
Islamic Jihad |
2.7% |
|
Fateh |
38.5% |
|
Hamas |
25.0% |
|
Fida |
0.1% |
|
Popular Front |
4.7% |
|
Palestinian National Initiative |
2.5% |
|
I am an independent nationalist |
7.4% |
|
I am an independent Islamist |
3.6% |
|
None of the above |
13.7% |
|
Others |
0.4% |
The General Results
President Mahmoud Abbas ascertained that the legislative elections will be conducted on its appointed time in January of the next year (2006). Do you believe that the elections will be conducted on the appointed time?
|
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Yes |
62.0 |
59.7 |
65.9 |
|
No |
29.6 |
32.3 |
25.1 |
|
No opinion/I do not know |
8.4 |
8.0 |
9.0 |
|
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you believe that the coming legislative elections will be democratic and fair?
|
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Yes |
58.4 |
57.1 |
60.7 |
|
No |
30.8 |
34.2 |
24.8 |
|
No opinion/I do not know |
10.8 |
8.7 |
14.4 |
|
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0.0 |
There are people who see that the local security conditions allow for conducting democratic and fair legislative elections and there are those who see the opposite. What is your opinion?
|
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Local security conditions allow for conducting elections |
56.9 |
57.0 |
56.7 |
|
Local security conditions do not allow for conducting elections |
36.3 |
38.7 |
32.1 |
|
No, opinion/I do not know |
6.8 |
4.3 |
11.2 |
|
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
How do you assess your trust in the Central Elections Committee?
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
|
Good |
44.8 |
43.4 |
47.3 |
|
Fair |
37.6 |
38.1 |
36.9 |
|
Little |
13.4 |
14.3 |
11.8 |
|
No opinion/I do not know |
4.2 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
|
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
There will be some supervision conducted by independent local observers on the legislative elections on the day they are held. How do you assess your trust in these observers?
|
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Very good |
23.2 |
18.2 |
31.9 |
|
Good |
53.0 |
55.9 |
48.1 |
|
Weak |
15.7 |
17.7 |
12.0 |
|
Bad |
5.7 |
5.8 |
5.4 |
|
No opinion/I do not know |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
|
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
There will be some supervision conducted by international independent observers on the legislative council elections on the day it is held. How do you assess your trust in these observers?
|
|
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Very good |
25.1 |
18.8 |
36.1 |
|
Good |
47.2 |
48.3 |
45.3 |
|
Weak |
15.1 |
18.2 |
9.6 |
|
Bad |
9.4 |
10.9 |
6.8 |